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Re: Theos-World Moe and the volcano

Apr 10, 2002 08:52 PM
by Steve Stubbs

Bart: "Please give a reference to that poll; I never
heard of such a thing. I know that the Koch party was
banned from the Knesset for suggesting that the
Palestinians be merely exiled."

It was cited on NPR by a reporter for NEWSWEEK and
again on 60 MINUTES II by Scott Pelley. Here is a URL
for the latter story:

Bart: "Virtually all the people who left were not
kicked out, but left to join their fellow Arabs in the
destruction of the 
new state of Israel, so that they could grab the land
when the Jews were driven into the sea.

You are certainly right that some of the Arabs wanted
to drive the Jews into the sea. It has been reported,
however, that the statement that all the Arabs left of
their own accord is part of an official take on
history which is not consistent with historical fact.

Bart: "Of course not. When they controlled the West
Bank, they treated the Palestinians FAR worse than the
Israelis ever did. But nobody took THEM to task
(except Amnesty International), do to the miracle of
moral equivalency.

Yes, everyone agrees that the Arabs have taken an
extraordinarily cynical posture toward the
Palestinians, forcing them into refugee camps, etc. I
don't think Sharon's ideas of how to provide security
will work, though.

What we are getting from the media is that there are
several demographic trends there which are
destabilizing inasmuch as they portend the demographic
ascendancy of groups in the future which are now
minorities. The orthodox Jews procreats at a much
faster pace than do others, so that if Israel remains
democratic they will have the votes in time to do away
with its secular character. Ironically, Ben Gurion
had in mind that Israel be Jewish and secular at the
same time, which I do not understand. I do not see
how you can establish a state religion and at the same
time say the state is secular. The Reform Jews do not
want to be overwhelmed by and sat upon by their
orthodox brethren. I cannot say that I blame them.

The Arabs procreate faster than the orthodox, which is
supposed to be the motive for the ethnic cleansing
sentiment. With 1m Arabs in Israel now and with
desperate people who have only peaceful intentions
naturally wanting to join the opportunity that exists
there, some fear Arabs will be the majority within ten
years. If the Jews deny them citizenship rights to
protect their own dominance, they will end up in the
same place as South Africa once was. Only by giving
their leaders a share of the power and convincing
those leaders they have a personal self interest stake
in the welfare of the state can they stop the suicide
bombers, etc. This could be possible because the
terrorists are followers. The leaders, despite their
cant, have no desire to die or even to be
inconvenienced. But if the Jewish elite shares power
with Israeli Arab leaders, then as the center of
gravity shifts, the place will inevitably cease to be
Jewish in the sense of being dominated by Jews. I
think that is the core issue. The elite there have
defined their goal in terms which makes the goal
unattainable, and they have defined strategies for
attaining the unattainable goal which have caused the
dissolution of empires in the past.

It seems to me the way to protect themselves against
the orthodox would be to disestablish Judaism as a
state religion (the way we have no state religion
here). People could still profess and practice
whatever religion they wanted to, but there would be a
commitment generally to tolerance which would be well
established when the shift occurs in favor of the
orthodox. This could also protect the Jews generally
when the Arabs become the majority if the Arabs could
be persuaded that Islam should not be established as a
state religion any more than Judaism. After all,
Turkey is a secular state, so a model exists. But
that would require a change in mindset. One thing is
sure: the time frame within which this needs to be
settled is very short and there is not much wisdom
over there that is in evidence.

Bart: "Regardless of morality, the tactics being
currently used are not likely to be effective.

Yes, I agree. I think the people who are making
policy fundamentally lack understanding of how things
work. I don't give a damn about the leaders, but the
average people, Jew and Arab, deserve to get on with
their lives.

Bart: "However, my fear is that the Israeli's are
going to
start acting the way that Europe and the Arabs SAY
they are acting, and within a week, there will not be
a single 
Palestinian left alive in the West Bank or the Gaza

It will take longer than that, but that seems to be
where we're headed. That is why I think it is useful
to discuss this and put some fresh ideas into
circulation. Once released into the ether, ideas tend
to develop a life of their own and turn up in
unexpected places.


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