Theos-Talk Archives (February 2010 Message tt00228)

Dear John and friends

This e-mail is a bit lengthy...


My views are:
Well, is it the trees the moves in the wind or the wind that moves in the trees?
My view is, that this issue with the Climate Change is far more uncontrolled than most of the Western countries are happy about.
John, I say this as a fellow Seeker, I would suggest that you talk with the Scientists in biology and forestry etc. about your stance and try to listen carefully to what they say.  I have personally been talking with a few of them. These biologists, researchers in forestry and similar scientists are out in the nature, and they will I dear say most of them tell you and all of us, that something - quite unnatural is going on in the forests these days. Here in Denmark the leading politicians kept a report on the Danish forest away from the public before the United Nations Climate Change meeting arrived a few weeks back. The report stated that the forests are struggling with deceases, with fungus in the trees and other kinds of abnormalities. Here in denmark we have experienced the plauge of "killer" Snails, which have arrived from the southern countries. In Romania, they have army-ants in their country as a new kind of climate change surprise and other similar issues are going on in various Western European countries. Most medias and politicians keep - very silent - about the actual potential problems these changes create to with regard to destabilisize the ecological balances on our little planet.

Something is going on, which has not happended on this little physical planet for a long time.
The evidence are there. Try to visit the local forest or ask the local caretaker of the forest or the local university.


1.
Paper from the COP15 meeting in Denmark, dec. 2009 - 
"Interlinkages between biodiversity and climate change" - nov. 2007 (Only 8 easily read pages)
http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_11/climate_talk_series/application/pdf/cop11_kiosk_guariguata.pdf (Pages 3 is telling.)

2. 
Paper from the COP15 meeting in Denmark, dec. 2009 - 
Our climate, our children, our responsibility - (Jan. 2009):

"Human impact of other changes only just emerging
There is also evidence of other consequences of a changing climate,
which are not identified as directly hazardous to people. These include the
earlier arrival of spring â with resulting changes in bird migration, egglaying
and the greening of vegetation â and the shifting of plant and
animal species into new geographical zones. Changes in Arctic and
Antarctic ecosystems have also been noted, as have changes in areas of
snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost) â runoff into rivers fed
by glaciers has increased, for example. Some marine and freshwater
species also appear to be altering their range and number.7 The longerterm
impact on humans of such changes is only just emerging."
http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/sbsta_agenda_item_adaptation/application/pdf/unicef_cc_info.pdf

3.
Paper from the COP15 meeting in Denmark, dec. 2009 - 
SUBMISSION BY THE UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY (UNU) - 2008
Climate change and migration:
impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation options
18 August 2008
"Today, environmental change including climate change presents a new threat to human security and a new
situation for migration.1 Climate change-related migration2 has the potential to become a phenomenon of a
scale and scope not experienced in human history."
.......
"Gradual and sudden environmental changes are resulting in substantial human movement and displacement.4
The scale of such migration flows, both internal and cross-border, is expected to rise, with large impacts.
Estimates of environmental migration fluxes have been published, and there is a growing consensus that
migration will increase substantially in the future.5"
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/awglca3/eng/misc03.pdf

4. 
Paper from IPCC -  2007 - 
*** Some of the dirty numbers ***
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report
"Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land and/or the thermal expansion of seawater over very long time scales could imply metres of sea level rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest effects in river deltas and low-lying islands. Current models project that such changes would occur over very long time scales (millennial) if a global temperature increase of 1.9 to 4.6ÂC (relative to pre-industrial) were to be sustained. Rapid sea level rise on century time scales cannot be excluded. {SYR 3.2.3; WGI 6.4, 10.7; WGII 19.3, SPM}

Climate change is likely to lead to some irreversible impacts. There is medium confidence that approximately 20 to 30% of species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5ÂC (relative to 1980-1999). As global average temperature increase exceeds about 3.5ÂC, model projections suggest significant extinctions (40 to 70% of species assessed) around the globe. {WGII 4.4, Figure SPM.2} "
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains3-4.html


5.
>From a bit old IPCC report:

>>> The following is from the official Scientific Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  <<<

Assesment Report 
"Key vulnerabilities
Mediterranean-type ecosystems were not explicitly reviewed in the TAR, but threats from desertification were projected due to expansion of adjacent semi-arid and arid systems under relatively minor warming and drying scenarios. Warming and drying trends are likely to induce substantial species-range shifts, and imply a need for migration rates that will exceed the capacity of many endemic species. Land use, habitat fragmentation and intense human pressures will further limit natural adaptation responses, and fire-regime shifts may threaten specific species and plant functional types. Vegetation structural change driven by dominant, common or invasive species may also threaten rare species. Overall, a loss of biodiversity and carbon sequestration services may be realised over much of these regions."
. . . . . . .

"However, the potential for CO2 sequestration varies from region to region (Callaghan et al., 2005) and model uncertainties are high (Sitch et al., 2007), since migration rates (Section 4.4.5), changes in hydrology, fire, insect pest outbreaks and human impacts relevant to the carbon cycle are poorly represented (see also Sections 4.4.1 and 4.4.5)."

. . . . . . .

"The seasonal migration patterns and routes of many wetland species will need to change and some may be threatened with extinction"
. . . . . . .

"Migration patterns

Vagile (see Glossary) animals such as polar bears (sea-ice biome, tundra; Box 4.3) and in particular migratory animals (tundra, wetlands, lakes, tropical forests, savannas, etc.; Box 4.5) respond to impacts both within and across biomes.Many species breed in one area then move to another to spend the nonbreeding season (Robinson et al., 2005).Many migratory species may be more vulnerable to climate change than resident species (Price and Root, 2005). As migratory species often move annually in response to seasonal climate changes, their behaviour, including migratory routes, is sensitive to climate.
Numerous studies have found that many of these species are arriving earlier (Chapter 1 and e.g., Root et al., 2003). Changes in the timing of biological events are of particular concern because of a potential disconnect between migrants and their food resources if the phenology of each advances at different rates (Inouye et al., 2000; Root et al., 2003; Visser et al., 2004). The potential impact of climate change on migratory birds has been especially well studied (Box 4.5)."

. . . . . . .

"Box 4.5. Crossing biomes: impacts of climate change on migratory birds
Migratory species can be affected by climate change in their breeding, wintering and/or critical stopover habitats. Models project changes in the future ranges of many species (Peterson et al., 2002; Price and Glick, 2002; Crick, 2004), some suggesting that the ranges of migrants may shift to a greater extent than non-migrants (Price and Root, 2001). In some cases this may lead to a lengthening and in others to a shortening of migration routes. Moreover, changes in wind patterns, especially in relation to seasonal migration timing, could help or hinder migration (Butler et al., 1997). Other expected impacts include continuing changes in phenology, behaviour, population sizes and possibly genetics (reviewed in Crick, 2004; Robinson et al., 2005)."

. . . . . . .

"Climate envelope models do not simulate dynamic population or migration processes, and results are typically constrained to the regional level, so that the implications for biodiversity at the global level are difficult to infer (Malcolm et al., 2002a)."
. . . . . . . .
"Reducing stress on ecosystems is difficult, especially in densely populated regions. Recent studies in southern Africa have signalled the need for policy to focus on managing areas outside protected areas (e.g., subsistence rangelands â Von Maltitz et al., 2006). This can, in part, be achieved through the devolution of resource ownership and management to communities, securing community tenure rights and incentives for resource utilisation. This argument is based on the observation that greater species diversity occurs outside protected areas that are more extensive (Scholes et al., 2004).
Species migration between protected areas in response to shifting climatic conditions is likely to be impeded, unless assisted by often costly interventions geared towards landscapes with greater ecological connectivity. Strategic national policies could co-ordinate with communal or private land-use systems, especially when many small reserves are involved and would be particularly cost-effective if they address climate change proactively. Finally, migration strategies are very likely to become substantially more effective when they are implemented over larger regions and across national borders (e.g., Hansen et al., 2003)"
. . . . . . . .

4.8 Key uncertainties and research priorities
"Key uncertainties listed here are those that limit our ability to project climate change impacts on ecosystems, but only if they have implications at sub-continental and higher spatial scales, are relevant for many species, populations and communities, or significantly weaken a modelling result. In terms of climate uncertainty, it is important to highlight that projections for precipitation carry a significantly higher uncertainty than temperature, yet play a major role for many projections obtained from modelling approaches. In relation to projecting climate change impacts on ecosystems, we find key sources of uncertainty to include:

â inadequate representation of the interactive coupling between ecosystems and the climate system and, furthermore, of the multiple interacting drivers of global change. This prevents a fully integrated assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services;
â major biotic feedbacks to the climate system, especially through trace gases from soils in all ecosystems, and methane from labile carbon stocks such as wetlands, peatlands, permafrost and yedoma;
â how aggregation within current DGVMs with respect to the functional role of individual species and the assumption of their instantaneous migration biases impact estimates;
â the net result of changing disturbance regimes (especially through fire, insects and land-use change) on biotic feedbacks to the atmosphere, ecosystem structure, function, biodiversity and ecosystem services;
â the magnitude of the CO2-fertilisation effect in the terrestrial biosphere and its components over time;
â the limitations of climate envelope models used to project responses of individual species to climate changes, and for deriving estimations of species extinction risks;
â the synergistic role of invasive alien species in both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning;
â the effect of increasing surface ocean CO2 and declining pH on marine productivity, biodiversity, biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning;
â the impacts of interactions between climate change and changes in human use and management of ecosystems as well as other drivers of global environmental change. Guided by the above, the following research needs can be identified as priorities for reducing uncertainties.
â Identify key
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter4.pdf
http://www.ipcc.ch/ 


A few words by M. Sufilight:
What can be a worry is that some of the above views are not new, but already a few years old.
I find it, however, important not to panic about this. At least as long as the changes are as slow as they have been so far. And theosophists do not panic in general.
But I recommend at the same time, that one do take this issue seriously. Because without being elevating myself to a prophetic level I will say, that the little physical planet will be changed because of these migrations of insects and animals - due to Climate Changes, whether they be human induced or not. But can we afford to merely believe they are not human induced, and overlook the benefits of living in harmony with nature - together with fresh air? How much change there will occur the future will tell, but we already see the signs and changes on it as I mentioned in the above. If the ice at the poles are smelting exponentially, we seem to be in for an interesting and new ride, as well as a changed planet, changed with regard to biodiversities and eco-systems. 




M. Sufilight

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Augoeides-222@comcast.net 
  To: theos-talk@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:59 AM
  Subject: Re: Theos-World Re: [bad text]


    
  Cass, 
  For me the answer is "YES" and here is the reasons why. This climate fiasco is a well planned and organized "Socialist Stampede" calculated to seriously injure, harm, disable the economy's of the developed Nations for the benefit of the third world and underdeveloped Nations as well as the Socialist bloc in effect to reorder the world order by means of punitive restrictions, punishments, extorted monetary largess to those who are criminally corrupted and who have shown no willingness to alter thier nations personal histories of thiefing world bank, international monetary fund, United Nations monies ( which are over 60 % United states contributions) while exempting them all from the same standard they wish to have the western developed nations subjected too. Perhaps you hadn't read the recent admittantances of the so called Scientists at the United Nations and their scandalous contributors so let me show you: 

  U. N. admits Himalaya Glacier Data Faulted 

  >>>http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UN_climate_panel_admits_Himalaya_glacier_data_poorly_substantiated_999.html<<< 

  U. N. Report Riddled with Errors 

  >>>http://www.comcast.net/articles/news-national/20100120/SCI.UN.Climate.Change/<<< 

  E-Letter to Bagla PDF File 

  >>>http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/eletters/326/5955/924<<< 

  IPCC Doubts: only the tip of the iceberg 

  >>>http://www.terradaily.com/reports/IPCC_Doubts_Only_the_Tip_of_the_Iceberg_999.html<<< 

  U.N. Climate Report Blunders again over Himalaya 

  >>>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6999975.ece<<< 

  UN Climate Report based on Student Essay 

  >>>http://www.terradaily.com/reports/UN_climate_panel_based_claims_on_student_essay_report_999.html<<< 

  World may not be Warming say Scientists 

  >>>http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7026317.ece<<< 

  This is a long way from over! The UN Head of the IPCC Panel has a well paid unpublished Chairmanship on a major non-profit benefit from UN funding and some believe it is very improper and should be looked into dilegently and thoroughly. 

  There is a lot more that can be poijnted to including the Japanese Protocol that was rejected years ago due to inherently unfair parameters while leaving China, Russia and a lot others outside the protocal. India and China compose tow Nuclear Powers that aspire to place the world under their domain. Are we to lay down and submit like sheep? I dare say my finger is high in the air lol! 

  Regards, 
  John 

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: "Cass Silva" <silva_cass@yahoo.com> 
  To: theos-talk@yahoogroups.com 
  Sent: Monday, February 15, 2010 5:15:17 PM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific 
  Subject: Re: Theos-World Re: [bad text] 

  I hope its not going to take another Atlantis sinking before we realise that the times they are a changin. 

  Cass 

  > 



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