Theos-Talk Archives (July 2002 Message tt00111)

Book blurb:

Title: The Rhythms of History: A Universal Theory of
Civilizations 
(ISBN: 0-9720795-0-5) 
Author: Stephen Blaha
Publisher: Janus Associates Inc.
Price: $27.95 The Barnes and Noble web site bn.com
has it available 
on discount at the moment for $19.56. It is also
availabe on 
amazon.com and bookstores at the retail price.



Civilizations bounce up and down like mattresses when
children jump 
on them according to Physicist Stephen Blaha. This
simple picture of 
civilizations emerges from massive studies of history
such as Arnold 
Toynbee's twelve volume A Study of History. From this
picture Blaha 
develops a mathematical theory of civilization. Blaha
says, "History 
is now a Science instead of a random collection of
events." His 
theory views a civilization as beginning with a 134
year period of 
great growth (the "pyramid building phase"). This
period ends in a 
breakdown (a point where growth ends). The
civilization then starts a 
process of disintegration lasting roughly eight
hundred years. This 
process is dominated by an oscillating series of ups
and downs that 
are mathematically like a damped spring called damped
harmonic 
motion. Eventually the spring of a civilization slowly
comes to rest. 
Each succeeding up move is roughly half of the
previous up move; each 
down move is half of the previous down move. 

Blaha suggests that civilizations were in part the
result of a 
genetic mutation 40,000 years ago that created an
adventurous group 
within mankind that set off the Upper Paleolithic
Cultural Explosion 
and later created civilizations (10,000 years ago)
when climactic 
conditions became more favorable. The oscillations in
civilizations 
appear to be based on an inherent long-term, four
generation, social 
feature of mankind that probably originated through
evolutionary 
selection. 

The overall idea of the theory of civilizations is
similar in spirit 
to Isaac Asimov's concept of a mathematical theory of
history that he 
described in the Foundation series of Science Fiction
books although 
Blaha's theory of civilization is totally different
from Asimov's. 

The theory has also been extended to extraterrestrial
civilizations. 
Blaha calculates their probable impact on Western
civilization if 
contact is established through Project SETI or other
means.

This theory of civilizations (with some
embellishments) accounts for 
the history of all known civilizations in the past
6,000 years 
according to Blaha. He claims that the theory has been
thoroughly 
tested by comparing its predictions to the patterns of
historical 
events in civilizations. Just as a doctor determines
the condition of 
a patient from the patient's symptoms, the "health" of
an evolving 
civilization is reflected in the events in the
civilization's 
history. 

The theory shows that the long-term social behavior
pattern of 
mankind (based on four generation trends) causes
civilizations to 
develop and "oscillate" in patterns of routs and
rallies lasting 
normally from 800 ?1000 years. Civilizations rise and
fall due to 
their internal human social dynamics. The theory
predicts that Japan 
will undergo a breakdown ?a catastrophic, social event
?in the near 
future that will cause it to decline for 134 years. It
suggests 
Western civilization avoided a major decline after
1914 due to its 
tremendous technological growth. The theory indicates
that the 
Islamic, Chinese and Indian civilizations are in a
growth phase that 
will last until roughly 2084. In 2084 internal social
pressures in 
these civilizations will lead to breakdowns in growth.


Blaha has applied the theory of civilizations to many
historical 
situations: the interaction of barbarians and
civilizations, the 
interaction of two civilizations, the impact of modern
technology on 
civilizations (it can account for the Luddite reaction
to the 
Industrial Revolution), the impact of major
environmental events on 
civilizations (e.g. the collapse of Minoan
civilization due to a 
volcanic eruption), and the disintegration of
civilizations. The 
theory embodies the tremendous growth phases seen in
many 
civilizations such as the building of the great
pyramids in Egypt. 
After comparing the theory to history Blaha finds
fifteen previously 
unidentified civilizations including prehistoric
civilizations in 
Egypt and China.

Blaha has written a book that describes his theory
entitled The 
Rhythms of History: A Universal Theory of
Civilizations. It presents 
a detailed description of the features of the
mathematical theory of 
civilizations and a thorough comparison with History
using 68 
diagrams. It also provides predictions of the world
situation in 2050 
and 2100 based on extrapolations of contemporary
civilizations. A 
detailed mathematical understanding of the past
enables the theory of 
civilizations to make concrete predictions of the
future. 


The author, Dr. Stephen Blaha, has worked in physics
and computer 
science for many years. He is the author of the
popular book Cosmos 
and Consciousness, and of books on C++ programming and
Java 
programming. He received an Honorable Mention in the
Gravity Research 
Foundation Essay Competition and was nominated for
three awards for 
Technical Excellence by PC Magazine. His books on
Amazon.com and 
BarnesandNoble.com have five star ratings. He is the
author of 
numerous papers in Physics and Computer Science. Among
other 
achievements he is a co-discoverer of the r potential
for heavy quark 
binding, first suggested the existence of topological
structures in 
superfluid He-3, and was a pioneer in computer
networking in UNIX. 

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