Re: While we debate the past
Apr 21, 2006 10:00 PM
by Vincent
Technological advancement is directly reflective of human evolution,
insofar as a nation's ballistic efficiency is directly corollary to
it's intellectual development.
Blessings
Vince
--- In theos-talk@yahoogroups.com, Cass Silva <silva_cass@...> wrote:
>
> Thought you might all find this interesting.Cass
>
>
> Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles The following is a list of
nations that have admitted the possession of nuclear weapons, the
approximate number of warheads under their control in 2002, and the
year they tested their first weapon. This list is informally known
in global politics as the "Nuclear Club". Note that with the
exception of Russia and the United States (which have subjected
their nuclear forces to independent verification under various
treaties) these figures are estimates, in some cases quite
unreliable estimates. Also, these figures represent total warheads
possessed, rather than deployed. In particular, under the SORT
treaty thousands of Russian and US nuclear warheads are in inactive
stockpiles awaiting processing. The contained radioactive fuel can
then be recycled for use in nuclear reactors that drive nuclear
power plants and some military submarines and warships.
> From a high of 65,000 active weapons in 1985, there were about
20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world in 2002. Many of
the "decommissioned" weapons were simply stored or partially
dismantled, not destroyed.[1]
>
> World map with nuclear weapons development status represented by
color. Red: Five "nuclear weapons states" from the NPT. Dark orange:
Other known nuclear powers. Yellow: States suspected of having
possession of, or suspected of being in the process of developing,
nuclear weapons and/or nuclear programs. Purple: States which at one
point had nuclear weapons and/or nuclear weapons research programs.
Green: Other states capable of developing nuclear weapons within
several years if the decision to do so were made.
>
>
> Declared nuclear weapons states Country Warheads active/total*
Year of first test United States 5,735/9,960[2] 1945
("Trinity") Russia (formerly the Soviet Union) 5,830/16,000[3]
1949 ("RDS-1") United Kingdom <200[4] 1952 ("Hurricane")
France 350[5] 1960 ("Gerboise Bleue") People's Republic of China
400[6] 1964 ("596") India 40-50[7] 1974 ("Smiling Buddha")
Pakistan 24-48[8] 1998 ("Chagai-I") North Korea 0-10[9] none
[10] *All numbers are estimates from the Natural Resources Defense
Council, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, unless
other references are given. If differences between active and total
stockpile are known, they are given as two figures separated by a
forward slash. If no specifics are known, only one figure is given.
Stockpile number may not contain all intact warheads if a
substantial amount of warheads are scheduled for but have not yet
gone through dismantlement; not all "active" warheads are deployed
at any
> given time. When a spread of weapons is given (e.g., 0-10), it
generally indicates that the estimate is being made on the amount of
fissile material which has likely been produced, and the amount of
fissile material needed per warhead depends on estimates of a
country's proficiency at nuclear weapon design.
> [edit]
>
> States that have tested a nuclear weapon
> An early stage in the "Trinity" fireball.
>
>
>
> The United States developed the first atomic weapons during
World War II out of the fear that Nazi Germany would first develop
them. It tested its first nuclear weapon in 1945 ("Trinity"), and
remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons against
another nation, during the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
(see: Manhattan Project). It was the first nation to develop the
hydrogen bomb, testing it ("Ivy Mike") in 1952 and a deployable
version in 1954 ("Castle Bravo").
> The USSR tested its first nuclear weapon ("Joe-1") in 1949, in
a crash project developed partially with espionage obtained during
and after World War II (see: Soviet atomic bomb project). The direct
motivation for their weapons development was the development of a
balance of power during the Cold War. It tested a primitive hydrogen
bomb in 1953 ("Joe-4") and a megaton-range hydrogen bomb in 1955
("RDS-37"). After its dissolution in 1991, its weapons entered
officially into the possession of Russia.
> The United Kingdom tested its first nuclear weapon
("Hurricane") in 1952, drawing largely on data gained while
collaborating with the United States during the Manhattan Project.
Its program was motivated to have an independent deterrence against
the USSR, while also remaining relevant in Cold War Europe. It
tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1957.
> France tested its first nuclear weapon in 1960, also as an
independent deterrence and to retain perceived Cold War relevance
(see: Force de frappe). It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1968.
> The People's Republic of China tested its first nuclear
weapon in 1964, much to the surprise of Western intelligence
agencies. It had long sought assistance in becoming a nuclear power
from an uneasy USSR, but assistance stopped after the Sino-Soviet
split and the weapon was developed as a deterrent against both the
USA and the USSR. It tested its first hydrogen bomb in 1967 at Lop
Nur. The country is currently thought to have had a stockpile of 400
warheads since the early 1980s, though with considerably fewer than
this actually deployed.[11]
>
> An Indian Agni-II intermediate range ballistic missile displayed
at the Republic Day Parade 2004. (Photo: Antônio Milena/ABr)
>
>
>
> India tested a "peaceful nuclear device", as it was described
by Indian government, in 1974 ("Smiling Buddha"), the first test
developed after the creation of the NPT, and created new questions
about how civilian nuclear technology could be diverted secretly to
weapons purposes (dual-use technology). It appears to have been
primarily motivated as a deterrent against China. It tested
weaponized nuclear warheads in 1998 ("Operation Shakti"), including
a hydrogen bomb (though the yield of this device is debated with
some speculation that the secondary fusion stage failed to ignite).
In July 2005, it was officially recognized by the United States as
a "responsible nuclear" state and agreed to full nuclear cooperation
between the two nations. This is seen as an "official" entry into
the nuclear club of the above nations.
> Pakistan covertly developed its nuclear weapons over many
decades with active Chinese assistance, beginning in the late 1970s.
It is contended that Pakistan began its nuclear development programs
in response to India's nuclear device. It is unknown when Pakistan
began its nuclear development projects, but by the 1980s it was
suspected of having successfully developed nuclear warheads.
However, this was to remain speculative until 1998 when Pakistan
conducted its first nuclear tests at the Chaghaii hills, a few days
after India conducted its own tests.
> [edit]
>
> Suspected nuclear states Countries believed to have at least one
nuclear weapon, or programs with a realistic chance of producing a
nuclear weapon in the near future:
>
> On October 5, 1986, the British newspaper The Sunday Times ran
Mordechai Vanunu's story on its front page under the
headline: "Revealed " the secrets of Israel's nuclear arsenal."
>
>
>
> Israel - Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny
having a nuclear arsenal, or to having developed nuclear weapons, or
even to having a nuclear weapons program. Although Israel claims
that Dimona is a "research reactor," no scientific reports based on
work done there have ever been published. Extensive information
about the program in Dimona was also disclosed by technician
Mordechai Vanunu in 1986. Imagery analysts can identify weapon
bunkers, mobile missile launchers, and launch sites in satellite
photographs. It is believed to possess nuclear weapons by the
International Atomic Energy Agency. Israel may have tested a nuclear
weapon along with South Africa in 1979 (see Vela Incident).
According to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the
Federation of American Scientists, they may possess 300-400 weapons,
a figure which would put them above the median in the declared list.
[12]
> North Korea - On January 10, 2003 North Korea withdrew from
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In February 2005 they claimed
to possess functional nuclear weapons, though their lack of a test
has led many experts to question whether or not they have a working
weapon.
> [edit]
>
> States suspected of having clandestine nuclear programs The
question of whether individual states without nuclear weapons are
trying to develop them is often a controversial one. Accusations of
clandestine nuclear programs are often vehemently denied, and may be
politically motivated themselves, or simply erroneous. Below are
countries who have been accused by a number of governments and
intergovernmental agencies as currently attempting to develop
nuclear weapons technology who are not suspected as yet having
developed it.
>
> At the Uraniums Conversion Facility in Isfahan, Iran, yellowcake
is converted into uranium hexafluoride as part of Iran's nuclear
fuel cycle, which has been alleged to be part of a clandestine
attempt to develop nuclear weapons.
>
>
>
> Iran - Iran signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and
says its interest in nuclear technology, including enrichment, was
for civilian purposes only (a right guaranteed under the treaty),
but the CIA and many other western countries suspect that this may
be a cover for a nuclear weapons program, claiming that Iran has
little need to develop nuclear power domestically and that it has
consistently chosen nuclear options which were dual-use technology
rather than those which could only be used for power generation.[13]
The Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi stated on the intentions
of his country's nuclear ambitions: "Iran will develop nuclear power
abilities and this have to be recognized by the treaties."[14] As of
February 4, 2006, the International Atomic Energy Agency referred
Iran to the United Nations Security Council in response to Western
concerns on their possible nuclear programs. On April 11, 2006,
Iran's president announced that the country had
> successfully enriched uranium to reactor-grade levels for the
first time.
> [edit]
>
> States formerly possessing nuclear weapons Nuclear weapons have
been present in many nations, often as staging grounds under control
of other powers. However, in only a few instances have nations given
up nuclear weapons after being in control of them; in most cases
this has been because of special political circumstances. The fall
of the USSR, for example, left many former Soviet-bloc countries in
possession of nuclear weapons.
>
> Ukraine - signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Ukraine
inherited about 5,000 nuclear weapons when it became independent
from the USSR in 1991, making its nuclear arsenal the third-largest
in the world.[15] By 1996, Ukraine had voluntarily disposed of all
nuclear weapons within its territory, transferring them to Russia.
[16]
> Belarus " Belarus had 81 single warhead missiles stationed
in their territory after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. They
were all returned to Russia by 1996. Belarus signed the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty.[17]
> Kazakhstan " Kazakhstan inherited 1,400 nuclear weapons from
Soviet Union, returned them all to Russia by 1995. Signed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[18]
> South Africa " Produced six nuclear weapons in the 1980s but
disassembled them in the early 1990s, and is thus the only nation
known to have willingly given up nuclear status after developing
their own weapons. Possibly tested a low yield device in 1979,
perhaps with Israel, over the southern oceans in the Vela Incident.
Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[19]
> [edit]
>
> States formerly possessing nuclear programs These are nations
known to have initiated serious nuclear weapons programs, with
varying degrees of success. All of them are now regarded as
currently no longer actively developing, or possessing, nuclear
arms. All of the listed countries (or their descendants) signed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
>
> Argentina " Conducted a nuclear weapon research program,
under military rule of 1978, at a time when it had signed, but not
ratified, the Treaty of Tlatelolco. This program was abandoned
after the return of civilian rule in 1983. Argentina later signed
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [20]. However, unofficial
reports and US intelligence postulate that Argentina continued some
kind of nuclear weapons program during the 1980s and 1990's, mainly
because of rivalry with Brazil. [21]
> Australia " Following World War II, Australian defence
policy premised joint nuclear weapons development with the United
Kingdom. Australia provided uranium, land for weapons and rocket
tests, and scientific and engineering expertise. Canberra was also
heavily involved in the Blue Streak ballistic missile program. In
1955, a contract was signed with a British company to build the Hi-
Flux Australian Reactor (HIFAR). HIFAR was considered the first step
towards the construction of larger reactors capable of producing
substantial volumes of plutonium for nuclear weapons. However,
Australia's nuclear ambitions were abandoned by the 1960s, and the
country signed the NPT in 1970 (ratified in 1973). [22]
> Brazil " Military regime conducted a nuclear weapon research
program (code-named "Solimões") to acquire nuclear weapons in 1978,
in spite of having ratified the Treaty of Tlatelolco in 1968. When
an elected government came into power in 1985, though, the program
was ended.[23] On July 13, 1998 President Fernando Henrique Cardoso
signed and ratified both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), denying that Brazil
had developed nuclear weapons.[24]
> Egypt " Had a nuclear weapon research program from 1954 to
1967. Egypt signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. [25]
> Nazi Germany " During World War II, Germany, under Nazi
rule, researched possibilities to develop a nuclear weapon. However
adequate resources were not invested into the effort and the project
was found to be many years from completion by the end of the war.
The research site was also sabotaged by the British spies and
Norwegian partisans which slowed down their research (see Norwegian
heavy water sabotage). Historian Rainer Karlsch, in his 2005 book
Hitlers Bombe, has suggested that the Nazis may have tested some
sort of "atom bomb" in Thuringia in the last year of the war; it
may have been a radiological weapon rather than a fission weapon),
though little reliable evidence of this has surfaced. (See: German
nuclear energy project) Germany is now a signatory to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty. Although it has an advanced science and
technology infrastructure and would be capable of creating a nuclear
weapons program (and could probably be considered a "nuclear
> capable" state), the government has decided to decrease even the
civil use of nuclear energy.
> Iraq " Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Had a
nuclear weapon research program during the 1970s and 1980s. In 1981,
Israel destroyed Iraqi nuclear reactor Osiraq. In 1996, the UN's
Hans Blix reported that Iraq had dismantled or destroyed all of
their nuclear capabilities. In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq,
charging that there was evidence the nation had "weapons of mass
destruction" that likely included some form of nuclear program.
However in 2004 the Duelfer Report concluded Iraq's nuclear program
was terminated in 1991.[26]
> Imperial Japan " Japan conducted research into nuclear
weapons during World War II though made little headway.[27] (see
Japanese atomic program). Japan signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty. While Japan has the technological capabilities to develop
nuclear weapons in a short time there is no evidence they are doing
so. Japan's constitution forbids it from producing nuclear weapons
and the country has been active in promoting non-proliferation
treaties. There exists some suspicion that nuclear weapons may be
located in US bases in Japan.[28]
> Libya " Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. On
December 19, 2003, Libya admitted having had a nuclear weapon
program and simultaneously announced its intention to end it and
dismantle all existing Weapons of Mass Destruction to be verified by
unconditional inspections.[29]
> Philippines " Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,
but the Philippines started its nuclear research program in 1958,
creating the Philippine Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) thru
Republic Act 2067 (Science Act of 1958) enacted by Congress to
undertake research and development activities in the peaceful use of
nuclear energy. The government built one facility in Quezon City for
nuclear research which consists of a live nuclear rector and during
the early 1980s, under the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos, the
government built its first nuclear power plant, the Bataan Nuclear
Power Plant in Bataan province in the main island of Luzon, but was
never used because of the change of government under the Corazon
Aquino administration. Under the present 1987 Philippine
Constitution, any kind of nuclear materials are banned from
Philippine soil.
> Poland " Nuclear research began in Poland in the early
1960s, with the first controlled nuclear fission reaction being
achieved in late 1960s. During the 1970s further research resulted
in the generation of fusion neutrons through convergent shockwaves.
In the 1980s research focused on the development of micro-nuclear
reactions, and was under military control. Currently Poland operates
the MARIA nuclear research reactor under the control of the
Institute of Atomic Energy, in Świerk near Warsaw. Poland signed
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and officially possess no
nuclear weapons.
> Romania " Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in
1970. In spite of this, under Nicolae Ceauşescu, in the 1980s,
Romania had a secret nuclear-weapons development program, that was
stopped after the overthrow of Ceauşescu in 1989. Now Romania runs
a nuclear power plant of two reactor units (with three more under
construction) built with Canadian support. It also mines and
enriches its own uranium for the plant and has a research program.
[30]
> South Korea " Began a nuclear weapons program in the early
1970s, which was believed abandoned after signing NPT in 1975.
However there have been allegations that program may have been
continued after this date by the military government.[31] In late
2004, the South Korean government disclosed to the IAEA that
scientists in South Korea had extracted plutonium in 1982 and
enriched uranium to near-weapons grade in 2000. (see South Korean
nuclear research programs)
> Sweden " During the 1950s and 1960s, Sweden seriously
investigated nuclear weapons, intended to be deployed over coastal
facilities of an invading enemy (the Soviet Union). A very
substantial research effort of weapon design and manufacture was
conducted resulting in enough knowledge to allow Sweden to
manufacture nuclear weapons. A weapon research facility was to be
built in Studsvik. Saab made plans for a supersonic nuclear bomber,
the A36. However Sweden decided not to pursue a weapon production
program and signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
> Switzerland " Between 1946 and 1969 Switzerland had a secret
nuclear program that came into light in 1995. By 1963 theoretical
basics with detailed technical proposals, specific arsenals, and
cost estimates for Swiss nuclear armaments were made. This program
was, however, abandoned partly because of financial costs and by
signing the NPT on November 27, 1969.
> The Republic of China (Taiwan) " Conducted a covert nuclear
weapon research program from 1964 until 1988 when it was stopped as
a result of U.S. pressure.[32] Signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty in 1968. According to a previously classified 1974 U.S.
Defense Department memorandum, Secretary of Defense James
Schlesinger expressed a view during a meeting with Ambassador
Leonard Unger that U.S. nuclear weapons housed in Taiwan needed to
be withdrawn.[33] The ROC is said to be currently developing the
Tien Chi, a short-range ballistic missile system that could reach
the coast of mainland China.[34]
> Yugoslavia
> Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's nuclear
ambitions began as early as 1950s when scientists considered both
uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing. In 1956, the Vinča
fuel reprocessing site was constructed, followed by research
reactors in 1958 and 1959, for which the Soviets provided heavy
water and enriched uranium. In 1966, plutonium reprocessing tests
began in Vinča laboratories, resulting in gram quantities of
reprocessed plutonium. During the 1950s and 1960s there was also
cooperation in plutonium processing between Yugoslavia and Norway.
In 1960 Tito froze the nuclear program for unknown reasons, but
restarted it, after India's first nuclear tests, in 1974. The
program continued even after Tito's death in 1980, divided into two
components " for weapons design and civilian nuclear energy, until
a decision to stop all nuclear weapons research was made in July
1987. The civilian nuclear program however resulted in a nuclear
power plant Krško
> built in 1983, now co-owned by Slovenia and Croatia, and used for
peaceful production of electricity.
> Federal Republic of Yugoslavia inherited the Vinča
laboratories and 50 kilograms of highly enriched uranium stored at
the site. During the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, Vinča was
never hit because NATO was aware of the HEU; indeed, it may have
been a reason for the NATO intervention. After the end of NATO
bombings the U.S. government and the Nuclear Threat Initiative
transported the HEU to Russia " the place from which Yugoslavia
originally acquired it.
>
> [edit]
>
> Other nuclear-capable states Virtually any industrialized nation
today has the technical capability to develop nuclear weapons within
several years if the decision to do so were made. Nations already
possessing substantial nuclear technology and arms industries could
do so in no more than a year or two, perhaps even as fast as a few
months or weeks, if they so decided to. The larger industrial
nations (Japan and Germany for example) could, within several years
of deciding to do so, build arsenals rivaling those of the states
that already have nuclear weapons. This list below mentions some
notable capabilities possessed by certain states that could
potentially be turned to the development of nuclear arsenals. This
list represents only strong nuclear capability, not the political
will to develop weapons. All of the listed countries have signed the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
>
> Canada - Canada has a well developed nuclear technology base,
large uranium reserves and markets reactors for civilian use. While
Canada has the technological capabilities to develop nuclear
weapons, there is no hard evidence it has done so, nor has Canada
ever shown the intention to join the nuclear club outright. Canada
has been an important contributor of both expertise and raw
materials to the American program in the past, and had even helped
with the Manhattan Project. In 1959, NATO proposed to Canada that
the RCAF assume a nuclear strike role in Europe. Thus in 1962 six
Canadian CF-104 squadrons based in Europe were formed into the RCAF
Nuclear Strike Force armed with B28 nuclear bombs (originally Mk 28)
under the NATO nuclear weapons sharing program; the Force was
disbanded in 1972 when Canada opted out of the nuclear strike role.
Canada accepted having American W-40 nuclear warheads under dual key
control on Canadian soil in 1963 to be used on the Canadian
> BOMARC missiles. The Canadian air force also maintained a
stockpile of AIR-2 Genie unguided nuclear air-to-air rockets as the
primary wartime weapon on the CF-101 Voodoo all-weather interceptor
after 1965. Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau declared Canada would be a
nuclear weapon-free country in 1971, and the last American warheads
were withdrawn in 1984.
> Germany - While Germany is a signatory of the NPT, it has the
means to easily equip itself rapidly with nuclear weapons. It has an
advanced nuclear industry capable of manufacturing reactors,
enriching uranium, fuel fabrication, and fuel reprocessing and it
operates 19 power reactors producing one third of its total
electrical needs. Since 1998, Germany has adopted a policy of
eliminating nuclear power, although slow progress had been made.[35]
On January 26, 2006, the former defence minister, Rupert Scholz,
said that Germany may need to build its own nuclear weapons to
counter terrorist threats.[36]
> Japan - While Japan has no political will for the acquisition
of nuclear weapons, the country does make extensive use of nuclear
energy in nuclear reactors, generating a significant percentage of
the electricity in Japan. Japan has the third largest nuclear energy
production after the U.S. and France, and plans to produce over 40%
of its electricity using nuclear power by 2010. Significant amounts
of plutonium are created as a by-product of the energy production,
and Japan had 4.7 tons of plutonium in December 1995. Experts
believe Japan has the technology, raw materials, and the capital to
produce nuclear weapons within one year if necessary, and some
analysts consider it a "de facto" nuclear state for this reason.
Others have noted that Japan's most advanced space exploration
rocket, the M-5 three-stage solid fuel rocket, is in fact a close
copy of the U.S. LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM. Japan has been quietly
reconsidering its nuclear status because of the ongoing crisis
> over North Korean nuclear weapons.[37]
> Italy - Italy has operated a number of nuclear reactors, both
for power and for research. The country was also a base for the GLCM
nuclear-armed ground-launched variant of the Tomahawk cruise missile
during the 1980s, despite strong public outcry. While no evidence
suggests that Italy intends to develop or deploy nuclear weapons,
such a capability exists - estimates from as far back as the mid-80s
show that Italy could begin and complete a nuclear weapons program
in as little as 2 to 3 years.
> Lithuania - Nuclear power reactors produce 77% of Lithuania's
electricity and it has 2 of the world's most powerful reactors in
its territory. However, one of these reactors was recently shut
down. Lithuania has the means of legally acquiring fissile materials
for power plants. Lithuania also has former launch sites for Soviet
Union missiles. However, there is no political will at present to
develop nuclear weapons in Lithuania.
> Netherlands - Operates a power reactor at Borsele, producing
452 MW, which satisfies 5% of its electrical needs and has an
advanced nuclear research and medical isotopes facility at Petten.
Several Dutch companies are key participants in the tri-national
Urenco uranium enrichment consortium. By the year 2000 the
Netherlands had about 2 tonnes of separated reactor grade plutonium.
There is no evidence for nuclear weapon programs in the Netherlands.
Also in light of the fierce opposition against nuclear weapon
deployment in the 1980s, it is highly unlikely that such a program
will ever exist.
> Saudi Arabia - In 2003 members of the government stated that
due to the worsening relations with the USA, Saudi Arabia was being
forced to consider the development of nuclear weapons. However, so
far they have denied that they are making any attempt to produce
them.[38] It has been rumored that Pakistan has transferred several
nuclear weapons to Saudi Arabia, but this is unconfirmed.[39] In
March 2006 the German magazine Cicero reported that Saudi Arabia had
since 2003 received assistance from Pakistan to acquire nuclear
missiles and warheads. Satellite photos allegedly reveal an
underground city and nuclear silos with Ghauri rockets south of the
capital Riyadh.[40] Pakistan has denied aiding Saudi Arabia in any
nuclear ambitions.[41]
>
>
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