Theos-Talk Archives (December 2001 Message tt00488)

"Truth rests not on possibility or plausibility but on probability."
--- Barzun and Graffe, THE MODERN RESEARCHER

The "possibility/plausibility" method of argument is a very useful 
tool in unpacking and throwing doubt on ANY normal or paranormal 
event/experience/experiment.

I give below an excellent example of this method of argument from THE 
TRANSCENDENTAL TEMPTATION by Paul Kurtz, a founding member of 
CSICOP. Notice how Kurtz focuses on POSSIBILITIES/PLAUSIBILITIES. I 
put certain words in CAPS to show his technique.

"Many psychic investigators were apparently impressed by the Fielding 
report on Eusapia Palladino [the famous Italian medium]. . . .Were 
some of the medium's manifestations genuine? . . . Or MAY WE SURMISE 
that Eusapia was more clever than Feilding and his associates? DID 
EUSAPIA HAVE accomplices --- PERHAPS Italians, scientists, and 
friends who had attended several seances, or even Carrington? DID 
SHE USE every trick in the book, changing them to suit her purposes? 
Since she was a voluptuous woman, WERE HER MALE SITTERS taken in by 
her erotic charms and DID THEY FAIL to take the proper precautions? 
Eusapia was OBVIOUSLY a master illusionist, well-versed in her craft; 
and those who sat with her, through skilled in their specialties, MAY 
PERHAPS have been outsmarted by her. The Feilding report denies the 
POSSIBILITY of accomplices or prearrangments in the hotel. But 
should we accept the denial?"

MAY WE SURMISE....PERHAPS...MAY PERHAPS.

"Where's the beef?" Kurtz offers only POSSIBILITIES & 
PLAUSIBILITES. But Kurtz does NOT offer any evidence to his readers 
to help them answer his questions. Some readers might falsely assume 
that "something" has been proven or disproven by Kurtz's use of this 
method of argument.

It should be pointed out that in contrast to Kurtz's "perhaps", the 
Feilding Report offers various kinds of EVIDENCE in support of the 
authors' conclusions.

That is not to say that the questions entertained by Kurtz are not 
worthy of consideration. But such questions should lead to further 
research on the subject and to the accumulation of evidence. 

In fact, the Feilding Report contains EVIDENCE that would actually 
answer many of Kurtz's questions.

The above example illustrates Ray Hyman's statement that "it is 
ALWAYS possible to 'imagine' SOME scenario in which cheating no 
matter how implausible, COULD HAVE occurred."

By using this "possibility/plausibility" method of argument, "one 
can 'HYPOTHETICALLY' explain away ANY result [even] in science [or 
history or the paranormal]."

My notebooks are full of hundreds of such examples from the skeptical 
literature on the paranormal.

Daniel H. Caldwell
BLAVATSKY ARCHIVES
http://hpb.cc